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Tavares Group Blog

IPCC’s most recent report on climate change – where do we go from here?

By: Sandra Tavares, Principal, Tavares Group Consulting Inc.
February 2007

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report February 2, 2007 stating the global temperature will probably increase by 1.8-4ºC (3.2-7.2ºF) by the end of the century, though local increases as small as 1.1ºC (2ºF) or as large as 6.4ºC (11.5ºF) are possible. The report went on to project sea level increases of 28-43cm, and that global warming was likely to influence the intensity of tropical storms.

The panel also concluded that it was at least 90% certain that human emissions of greenhouse gases rather than natural variations are warming the planet’s surface. “We can be very confident that the net effect of human activity since 1750 has been one of warming,” co-lead author Dr. Susan Soloman told delegates in Paris.

The findings are part of the first of four IPCC reports to be published this year.  The report was produced by some 600 authors from 40 countries and included over 620 expert reviewers, with some government participation.  Representatives from 113 governments reviewed and revised the summary during the course of January 29-February 2 in Paris, France before adopting it and accepting the underlying report.  The full climate science report will be released November 17, as will other chapters looking at the probable impacts of climate change, options for adapting to those impacts, and possible routes to reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988 to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.  The assessments, released every five or six years, are used as a major source of information for government policy makers.

What does this mean?

A stronger commitment will have to be made not only on national levels from doubtful countries but also on other government levels, by industry and individuals.  The commitments must be supported by robust strategies and carried out all the while ensuring transparency.  There are many examples that can be learned from.

Time for action

On a national level, many countries are taking this global threat very seriously and have adopted hard-line policies to make considerable changes.  Take Sweden, for example.  Emissions of greenhouse gases have decreased by 7 per cent between 1990 and 2005 while the economy has grown by 36 per cent during the same period. This has been successful in part due to the use of economic instruments such as environmental taxes (on energy and CO2) and fees.  Its aggressive energy agenda also contributes as a shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy (e.g. biogas and green cars) is being made in all sectors.

The UK has committed to go significantly beyond their Kyoto commitment and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 23-25 per cent by 2010. Without the measures introduced since 1997 and the measures being taken currently, they estimate that CO2 emissions in 2010 might only be about 1 per cent lower than in 1990, rather than 15 to 18 per cent lower as it is currently.

Although the U.S. is responsible for 25% of emissions blamed for global warming and has chosen not to ratify Kyoto, there are many initiatives within the U.S. that could be learned from.  Take for example, the state of California, a leader in the study and implementation of climate change strategies.  On June 1, 2005, Governor Schwarzenegger signed an executive order establishing the following greenhouse gas targets:

  • By 2010, reduce to 2000 emission levels
  • By 2020, reduce to 1990 emission levels
  • By 2050, reduce to 80 percent below 1990 levels

The Climate Action Team’s preliminary economic assessment, indicates that implementation of these strategies will result in 83,000 new jobs and an increase in personal income of $4 billion by 2020.

Cities are also getting on board.  The Community Climate Change Action Plan report was approved by Vancouver City Council on March 29, 2005. The plan focuses on reducing not only greenhouse gases but also energy consumption and creating a more sustainable city.

From a social responsibility standpoint, industry will need to continue leading in the right direction.  Additionally, environmental improvement has shown that it can lead to profitability.  For example, one of GE’s four pledges under “ecomagination” is to improve the energy efficiency of its operations and reduce the company’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.  In 2004 and 2005, the Company focused on energy costs by embarking on 500 energy conservation projects globally, resulting in more than 250,000 tons of GHG emission reductions, this being the equivalent of removing nearly 50,000 cars from the road.  The result?  $14 million a year in energy cost savings.

How are you contributing to minimize GHGs?

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